Good morning!

Québec’s separatists are back in power, giving Carney another family matter to manage. The McCains have family business of their own, with a big IPO up for discussion. Elsewhere, Cenovus Energy has agreed to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7B.

Let’s get into it.

MARKET RUNDOWN

Yesterday’s Close

Optimism ahead of earnings season and lower oil prices lifted U.S. stocks, with mega-cap tech pushing the Nasdaq to a record close.
Crude fell after fresh shipping data showed Middle Eastern exports had exceeded pre-war levels on several days in September.
The TSX was little changed as technology gains offset declines in energy and financials.

BRIEF OF THE DAY

Québec’s Separatist Party Wins a Minority Government

Parti Quebecois Wins Provincial Electionn

The news: The Parti Québécois (PQ) won Monday’s provincial election, with preliminary results giving it 59 of 127 seats (5 short of a majority). Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is set to become Québec’s next premier, returning the party to power for the first time since 2014.

The referendum: St-Pierre Plamondon still promises holding a vote on separating from Canada, but has ruled one out before Trump’s term ends in January 2029, citing concerns that Trump could disrupt the debate. Recent polls put support for Québec independence around 30%.

For business: The PQ proposes gradually cutting Québec’s corporate income tax rate from 11.5% to 9.5%, offset by reduced business subsidies. It also pledges to balance the budget in 2028-29, a year ahead of the existing timetable.

For infrastructure: The party wants to withdraw Québec from Alto, the proposed Toronto-Québec City high-speed rail project led by the federal government, and prioritize repairing existing infrastructure.

A new challenge for Carney: Carney must now work with a separatist premier while seeking a united response to U.S. tariffs. Alberta also holds a non-binding vote on October 19 on whether to pursue a separation referendum.

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💼 Why this matters: Ottawa’s response to U.S. trade pressure relies partly on provincial cooperation, from shaping Canada’s negotiating position to removing internal trade barriers and building export infrastructure. Renewed unity disputes could make that coordination harder, adding uncertainty for businesses across Canada planning investments and expansion.

HEADLINE RECAP

In Canada

Separatist party wins Québec election in new potential challenge for Carney (BBG)
McCain heiress calls family meeting to discuss potential IPO of Toronto-based McCain Foods Group at an estimated $20B+ valuation (G&M)
Canada services sector contracts for 4th straight month as tariffs weigh, PMI shows (G&M)
BMO’s Davis says U.S. 30Y Treasury yield at 6% is “inevitable” (BBG)
Brookfield CEO says AI infrastructure demand still far exceeds supply, sees little overbuilding risk (TL)
UofT launches $100M program to attract top PhD talent in AI, health, and other priority fields (TL)
La Caisse reportedly pushed out FNZ CEO Blythe Masters as it tightens control over fintech (TL)
Cohere launches “North 2” enterprise AI platform with expanded agent capabilities for businesses (G&M)
Nutrien (TSX:NTR) to indefinitely shut Trinidad nitrogen operations amid gas supply constraints (G&M)

DEALS WITH CANADIAN PARTIES

M&A & Investments

Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE): The Calgary-based integrated oil & natural gas company agreed to acquire Alberta oil producer Athabasca Oil (TSX:ATH) at a $5.7B enterprise value, adding the Leismer / Corner oil sands assets and consolidating ownership of their Duvernay Energy joint venture.
- CIBC was exclusive advisor to Cenovus; Peters & Co. was exclusive advisor to Athabasca and its board; National Bank advised Athabasca’s special committee. Peters and National Bank also provided fairness opinions.
Aurora Cannabis (TSX:ACB): Connecticut-based Curaleaf (TSX:CURA) proposed raising its hostile bid for the Edmonton-based medical cannabis producer by 25%, to an implied cash-and-stock offer of US$5 (~$7.13) per share.
- Canaccord Genuity advised Curaleaf; Fort Capital advised Aurora and provided an opinion to its board and special committee on the original bid.
Slate Asset Management: The Toronto-based real estate investor, alongside UAE-based alternative investment manager OneIM, agreed to acquire a ~€250M (~$399M) portfolio of 8 grocery-anchored retail parks in Norway from Tellus Eiendom, a Norwegian private real estate company.
- ABG Sundal Collier acted as buyer-side facilitator and sole debt arranger.
MNP: The Calgary-based national accounting & advisory firm merged with an undisclosed Edmonton-area regional accounting & advisory practice, adding 4 partners and 20 staff.
Weed Man: The Toronto-based lawn care franchisor, which is the largest in North America, added Connecticut-based PE firm Gridiron Capital as an investor.
- KPMG Corporate Finance advised Weed Man; Harris Williams advised Gridiron Capital.
Franco-Nevada (TSX:FNV): The Toronto-based gold-focused royalty & streaming company acquired a 12.42% stake in Vancouver-based mineral explorer Kenorland Minerals (TSXV:KLD) from shareholder John Tognetti and CEO Zach Flood.

VC & Growth Equity

Sernova Biotherapeutics (TSX:SVA): The Canadian regenerative medicine biotech firm’s proposed U.S. merger partner Seraxis closed an upsized US$11.2M (~$16M) convertible financing for diabetes cell therapies, with BC investor Steven Sangha and Sernova executives participating.

ECM

PesoRama (TSXV:PESO): The Toronto-based, Mexico-focused dollar store operator announced a $25M bought-deal share offering at $0.60 per share to fund store expansion in Mexico.
- Canaccord Genuity was lead underwriter and sole bookrunner.

DCM & Credit

Vireo Growth (CSE:VREO): The BC-incorporated U.S. cannabis operator secured US$60M (~$86M) in real estate financing at 8.5%, maturing in 2034, to refinance its New York facility debt and fund its acquisition of a Florida facility used by its Green Dragon business.

BAY STREET TRIVIA

Which Canadian pension fund bought the company running the U.K.’s National Lottery in 2010?

FOR THE GROUP CHAT

💼 Québec’s Separatists Move In