Good morning!

Alberta is staying in Canada. The result was largely expected, but it's still a relief for national unity and for businesses already dealing with U.S. trade uncertainty

Meanwhile, WestJet’s bonds are losing altitude.

Let’s get into it.

MARKET RUNDOWN

Yesterday’s Close

The Canadian dollar hit a 4-week high after Alberta voted overwhelmingly to remain in Canada, with a narrower Canada–U.S. interest rate gap adding support.
Oil reversed lower on an unconfirmed report of a U.S.–Iran peace proposal, helping ease long-term yields and lift the TSX and U.S. stocks.
Continued doubts over AI investment returns drove a rotation from U.S. tech stocks into healthcare.

BRIEF OF THE DAY

Alberta Votes to Stay in Canada, Easing Uncertainty for Companies and Investors

The vote: Alberta’s referendum asked Albertans whether they wanted to remain in Canada or begin the legal process for a future binding vote on separating from Canada. Preliminary results showed that an overwhelming ~76% of counted votes favoured staying in Canada.

Why it happened: Alberta’s separatists argued that federal policies were holding back Alberta’s energy industry and that the province would keep more of its wealth by leaving Canada. Following petition campaigns, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith agreed to put the question to voters - she supported holding the referendum, but urged Albertans to choose to stay.

What separation could have meant: Independence could have given Alberta more control over taxes and energy policy, but its economy relies heavily on customers, investment, and transport routes outside the province. New trade barriers or years of uncertainty could have raised business costs, pushed investment elsewhere, and weakened economic growth and hiring.

The uncertainty was already affecting investment: Ahead of the vote, an Alberta Chambers of Commerce survey found that 44% of businesses surveyed said that the separation debate was affecting them. Some reported that major investments or projects had been delayed, scaled back, or cancelled.

What comes next: On Tuesday evening, Smith pledged not to hold another separation referendum while she is premier. Her government will continue seeking greater provincial powers, including over immigration, so disagreements with the federal government still remain.

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💼 Why this matters: Canada’s economy depends on companies being able to raise money, move goods, and operate across its provincial borders. Alberta’s vote reduces the risk of disrupting those arrangements while businesses are already navigating U.S. trade uncertainty. That gives companies a more stable basis for investing in energy production, infrastructure, and other industries.

HEADLINE RECAP

In Canada

Alberta voters reject separation path, with ~76% choosing to remain in Canada (BBG)
Canada and Turkey expected to sign declaration deepening defence, LNG, and nuclear ties during Carney visit (RTRS)
WestJet bonds fall to record low - near 85 cents on the dollar - as fuel costs and trade tensions weigh on outlook (BBG)
Vancouver-based logistics company UniUni’s US$1B+ TSX go-public deal collapses after SPAC terminates agreement (BK)
Trump signals retreat from Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) boycott threat, citing U.S. jobs (BBG)
U.S. importer sues Trump administration over 50% tariffs on ~US$20B of Canadian goods (G&M)
Canada to unveil Budget 2026 on Nov. 5 as Parliamentary Budget Officer projects $333B in cumulative 5-year deficits (BBG)
RBC considers blocking Meta’s Muse AI agent from accessing customer data (BBG)
BMO names Tim Cox as U.S. Head as Darrel Hackett steps down (G&M)
Stelco posts strongest quarter since Cleveland-Cliffs takeover even as hundreds face layoffs in Ontario (CBC)
Sherritt (TSX:S), a Canadian nickel & cobalt producer, wins U.S. license to ship fuel and sulfur to Cuba mine (BBG)
Canada pledges $15M toward Xona’s $64.8M Montréal satellite-navigation expansion (TL)
Questrade offers accredited Canadian investors OpenAI pre-IPO exposure at US$1.4T valuation (G&M)

DEALS WITH CANADIAN PARTIES

M&A & Investments

Canaccord Genuity (TSX:CF): The Canadian financial services firm is reportedly in talks to sell its U.K. wealth management business to a Centerbridge-led consortium including Mubadala for around £1B (~$1.9B), after exclusive talks with CD&R and Warburg Pincus lapsed.
- Fenchurch Advisory is reportedly advising Canaccord on the sale.
UniUni: The Vancouver-based parcel delivery company’s planned merger with SPAC vehicle MAK Acquisition (TSX:MAK.U) was terminated, with MAK citing a loss-covenant breach; the deal had put UniUni’s enterprise value at US$1B+ (~$1.4B+).
ShaMaran Petroleum: The Canadian-founded, Iraq-focused oil producer agreed to an all-share merger with Gulf Keystone at an implied equity value for ShaMaran of ~US$601M (~$845M), with each shareholder group owning half the combined company.
Western Investment Company of Canada (TSXV:WI): The Calgary-based insurance holding company agreed to acquire livestock insurer Canadian Farm Insurance and the Stockmens Insurance agencies from Nilsson Bros. affiliates for $52.5M.
BrevisRefero: The Toronto-based biopharma consulting firm and developer of RFP>Navigator was acquired by U.S. life sciences media platform Life Science Connect.
International Submarine Engineering: The BC-based maker of autonomous & remotely operated underwater vehicles was acquired by Israeli defence tech company Elbit Systems.
Kramer: The Canadian platform connecting retail pharmacies with compounding specialists was acquired by Stealth Health, a telemedicine provider operating in Canada and the U.S.
Commercial Bakeries: The Toronto-based cookie and cracker maker, backed by PE firm Graham Partners, acquired Partners, a Washington-based cracker manufacturer.

VC & Growth Equity

NYA Ventures: The Calgary-based VC firm joined a US$7M (~$9.8M) round for U.S. forestry robotics company Kodama Systems, co-led by Konvoy Ventures and Breakwater Ventures.
PataBid: The Calgary-based AI estimating platform for trade contractors raised pre-seed funding led by Graphite Ventures, with participation from Sprout Fund, Bluesky Equities, and Inverted Ventures.

ECM

Algoma Central (TSX:ALC): The Ontario-based marine transportation company announced $62.5M of 6.20% convertible debentures due 2031, comprising a $50M bought deal and a $12.5M investment from controlling shareholder E-L Financial (TSX:ELF); proceeds will fund new vessel investments and M&A.
- CIBC led the bought deal.
Western Investment Company of Canada (TSXV:WI): The Calgary-based insurance holding company launched a ~$50M best-efforts share placement to fund its acquisition of livestock insurer Canadian Farm Insurance and the Stockmens Insurance agencies.
NVRO Metals (TSXV:NVRO): The Vancouver-based metals-processing technology company announced a private placement of up to $35M to help fund its previously announced acquisition of Northern Territories Resources in Australia; the offering is expected to include strategic investments from KEWA Financial, Transamine, and Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL).
- ATB Cormark and Cantor Fitzgerald Canada acted as co-lead agents and joint bookrunners.
Entrée Resources (TSX:ETG): The Vancouver-based mining company with a carried interest in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi project announced a private placement of up to $31.9M, with a significant portion expected from an affiliate of Tether.

BAY STREET TRIVIA

Which province issued $1 certificates that needed a one-cent stamp every week to remain valid?

FOR THE GROUP CHAT

💼 Alberta's Not Leaving